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2012 SK Pres. Election 

 

 

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2012

The Actual Vote Counting Hasn’t Started Yet in 2012 South Korean Presidential Election As Only the Electronic Counting Was Done


1. Why Are the Results of the Election Not Trustable?


(1) A Large Gap between the Exit Polls and Actual Vote Count Results

Over the past decade, the exit polls have a reputation for accuracy in projecting election results including the winning margin.  In the 2002 presidential election, the exit polls indicated a 1.7 percentage point lead for Roh Moo-hyun and he eventually won by a 2.3 percentage point lead.  There was just a 0.6 percentage point difference between the exit polls and the actual results.  And in the 2010 Seoul City mayoral election, there was just a 0.4 percentage point difference between the exit polls and the actual results.  In 2002, the three major S. Korean TV networks (KBS, MBC, and SBS) took the exit polls “separately” and “independently.” During Lee Myung-bak’s administration (2008~present), most of the South Korean media have diminished to be the government’s handmaidens and this year, strangely enough, KBS, MBC, and SBS decided to conduct the “joint” exit polls, all of a sudden.

In the 2012 presidential election, the exit polls showed very low accuracy. The “joint” exit polls by KBS, MBC, and SBS indicated a 1.7 percentage point lead for Park Geun-hye but she eventually won by a 3.6 percentage point lead.  A 2.4 percentage point difference between the exit polls and the actual results is huge.  On the other hand, in the exit polls by OhMyNews, Moon Jae-in was projected to win the election by a 2.4 percentage point lead, beyond the margin of error.  All these exit polls had been taken up until 3:00 pm. When we consider the fact that in South Korea, voters in their 50’s and over who tend to lead toward the conservative party tend to do more early voting than the younger generations who tend to lean toward the democratic party, Moon could have won by a huge margin.  And in fact, in the exit polls by YTN, Moon was projected to win the election by a 3.6 percentage point lead.

More than anything, voter turnouts were soaring throughout the Election Day, almost as high as in the 1997 presidential election in which Kim Daejung, the Democratic nominee, won the election and even higher than in the 2002 presidential election in which Roh Moo-hyun, also the Democratic nominee, won the election.



Around 1:00 pm, Park Geun-hye’s Saenuri Party announced they would file a lawsuit to declare invalid election even if Moon won the election, making a false accusation of unlawful acts.  According to some reports made around that time, Park’s camp and Saenuri Party were texting one another, stating the emergency while Moon’s camp, the Democratic Party, and the supporters were in a festive mood.  According to the resources for reporters, the joint exit polls taken by KBS, MBC, and SBS up until 3:00 pm indicated a 2.2 percentage point lead for Moon (Moon: 50.8%, Park: 48.6%).


Exit poll results conducted by various polling agencies 
were texted to Park Jie-won, the floor leader for Democratic Party
right before the release of the "joint" exit polls by KBS, MBC, and SBS.
All of them projected Moon Jae-in to win the election.
The text message above reads:
Samsung: Moon (50.8%), Park (48.6%)
Korea Research: Moon (47%), Park (42%)
Reseach View & Stock Firms: Moon (50.4%), Park (48.1%)
Research Plus: Moon (50.4%), Park (48.1%)
KBS (Independent), YTN, Blue House indicated a 3 percentage point lead for Moon.


But in less than two hours, at 5:00 pm, KBS, MBC, and SBS unanimously projected Park to win the election (Moon: 48.9%, Park: 50.1%). Unlike past elections, they didn’t even announce and update the hourly exit polls before 5:00 pm.

FYI, there’s no more exit polls after 5:00 pm and 2,310,660 people voted after 5 pm.  Suppose the joint exit polls were accurate, then in order for Moon to win, he should have earned 57.5% of 2,310,660 votes.  But not only did he fail to do so but he lost by a bigger margin than projected.  Traditionally, college students and blue/white collar workers tend to start voting around 5:00 pm after their work is over.  And they tend to lean toward the progressive party.  Here’s one out of many examples:  In the 2010 Seoul City mayoral election, Oh Se-hoon of the conservative Grand National Party (former Saenuri Party) was leading by 14 percentage point margin in the morning, by 4 percentage point margin at 4:00 pm, and by 0.6 percentage point margin around closing time as more people voted for Han Myung-sook of the Democratic Party after 4:00 pm. 

Did Moon fail to earn 57.5% of 2,310,660 votes cast after 5:00 pm because the voters in their 50’s and over chose to turn out after 5:00 pm this time? And reportedly, voters in their 50’s marked 90% turnout and the media is unanimously making a fuss about it every day. Does it mean the conservative fifty something voters chose to turn out altogether after 5:00 pm, only in this election?


(2) The 2012 South Korean Presidential Election Marked High Voter Turnout: 75.8%

Past elections have shown that the higher the voter turnout, the more likely the progressive party to win.  The media and Saenuri Party are now touting the growth in the 50 and over population. It’s true the 50 and over population has increased 10%. Voters in their 50’s reportedly marked 89.9% turnout but they are a limited range of the voters. Thus, we don’t think it’s plausible they were the main reason of the higher-than-usual voter turnout.


(3) Turnout among Voters in Their 50’s was Abnormally High and Turnout among Voters in Their 40’s was Abnormally Low

Voter turnouts of the 1997, 2002, and 2007 presidential elections show a uniform pattern.  When we calculate the voter turnout by age based on this pattern, 82% of voters in their 40’s and 80% of voters in their 50’s must have turned out to vote with 75.8% voter turnout. But in fact, in the 2012 presidential election with 75.8% voter turnout, only 78.7% of voters in their 40’s are known to have voted while a tremendously high number of voters in their 50’s (89.9%) have turned out to vote. Let me put it this way. If 51 year-old voters mark 82% turnout, then voters at a certain age group must mark 98% turnout to make 89.9% average turnout possible.  So, 89.9% turnout among voters in their 50’s, do you think it’s really possible?

Especially, while the average turnout gap in past elections between voters in their 40’s and those in their 50’s is 7%, the gap in turnout in the 2012 presidential election is 11.2%.  When we consider the high turnout in this election, the gap would be approximately 13%.  Please beware that the turnout among voters in their 50’s has nothing to do with the growth in the 50’s population. Yet, the leading conservative news media is trying to relate these two variables to justify the nonsensical election results. But the fact of the matter is, the voter turnout by age is not available at this time and they are telling lies with no tangible real numbers.


(4) Moon Jae-in Earned 40% of the Vote Cast in Busan

As Busan is a traditional conservative Saenuri Party voting constituency, Moon’s Democratic camp had hoped to get 35% of the vote at the most.  But in fact, he got 40% of the vote surpassing their own expectations. This is the best result the Democratic Party has ever had in Busan in the history of South Korean elections. FYI, Roh Moo-hyun won the 2002 presidential election, with only 29.9% of the vote earned in Busan.  But Moon lost the 2012 presidential election, even with 39.9% of the vote earned in Busan.  


(5) Absentee Voter Turnout was Very High

900,000 absentee voters and 150,000 South Koreans overseas cast their votes – 1,050,000 votes in all.  A majority of absentee voters are younger generations who tend to lean toward the progressive party and absentee voter participation in the 2012 presidential election was tremendously high.  Moon also got 56.7% of the vote cast by 150,000 South Koreans overseas while Park got 42.8%.  


(6) Possible Unlawful Acts in Absentee Vote and Overseas Vote

Votes are counted immediately after voting ends. But the absentee votes and overseas votes are counted respectively 5 days and 9 days after voting ends. Therefore, there’s a security risk for ballot boxes since early vote count is not allowed.  Unless the official supervisors from each party keep a close watch on the boxes 24/7, anyone can always open them and rig the vote. For instance, in the 2011 Seoul City mayoral by-election that Park Won-soon of the Democratic Party won 53.2% to 46.4%, Na Kyung-won of conservative Saenuri Party earned 54.7% of the absentee vote.

More importantly, the ballot boxes in the 2012 presidential election were made from plastic and accordingly, the security seals and safety latches can always be removed from and applied back to the plastic ballot boxes without damaging. 



The safety latches were also made from plastic.
A ballot box with no security seal
Extra ballot boxes with no seals hidden behind found by a voter
One of the ballot boxes made of metal
used during Roh Moo-hyun's administration


Besides, the ballot envelopes were transparent so anyone can see who the votes were for, which means anyone can selectively pick out and switch or discard the votes.  This is a clear violation of the constitution that guarantees secret ballots.


Picture taken at 2012 S. Korean presidential election voting center

And the absentee ballot envelopes were transparent, too.





(7) Other Proofs for Possible Unlawful Acts Associated with Vote Count

Since the Election Day, South Koreans have been raising suspicions that there were unlawful acts associated with S. Korea's presidential vote count, including “8 million” ballots votes declared invalid and left unaccounted for or bunches of votes for Park Geun-hye found folded together, to name a few.



Votes declared to be for Park Geun-hye

A bunch of votes for Park Geun-hye folded together
found in Andong voting center
A bunch of votes for Park Geun-hye folded together


But most importantly, According to Han Young-soo, a former union head of the Central Election Management Committee, the very first broadcast of the 2012 presidential election results proved that there were unlawful, corrupt acts associated with vote count. YTN was the first network to release the election results from the voting centers around the nation. Under the South Korean Public Official Election Act, 100 votes should be bundled together, manually counted, screened, then signed and sealed by the election board. And the official result of each bundle is officially announced by the chairman of the regional election committee, transmitted to the Central Election Management Committee, and then broadcast by the networks.   When YTN broadcast the early results from Danyang or Hoengseong, however, votes less than 100 were released as shown in the following pictures.


YTN reports the results from Danyang, Chungbuk Province
YTN reports the results from Hoengseong, Gangwon Province


This means the votes were “not” put in bundles of 100, or manually counted, or screened, or signed and sealed by the election board. And the official result of each bundle was “not” officially announced by the chairman of the regional election committee or transmitted to the Central Election Management Committee.  And this election should be invalidated as the Central Election Management Committee committed unlawful acts which were strongly related to the unlawful use of the electronic counter for the actual counting, not just for sorting. This means the Central Election Management Committee has also diminished to be the government’s handmaiden and systematically committed unlawful acts in South Korea’s presidential election in connivance with the TV networks.


(8) Only Electronic Counters were Used for Vote Count

Errors and fraud made in South Korean elections including the 2012 presidential election will be discussed below.  In short, this election was Moon Jae-in’s to lose but he really lost by a big margin.



2. Inevitable Connection between Electronic Counting and Man in Power

Even before the 2012 presidential election, there have been some concerns expressed regarding the use of the electronic counters as a means of vote count. Experts like Han Young-soo, a former union head of the Central Election Management Committee say they can pre-program the electronic counters and the Central Election Management Committee’s computer to fabricate the election results. The reality is one thing, the virtual reality is another. In other words, the Central Election Management Committee and the TV networks can always release and broadcast the fabricated counting process and results live.

Imagine that you are President Lee Myung-bak with great power and money but with no sense of shame or decency. During your own administration, you have been imbued with corruption. If the Democratic office holds power, then it’s highly likely that you will be subject to criminal prosecution and sent to prison. But you know too well that the electronic counters have serious flaws; that these machines can be easily used to rig the votes so magically.  For it was you who asked for the recount in the previous presidential election. Then would you not feel tempted to cheat using these machines? If not, then you would feel uneasy and nervous on Election Day, wouldn’t you? But when South Koreans saw him vote with the First Lady on Election Day, they felt uneasy and nervous instead because the First Couple looked so worry-free and even delighted as if they didn’t care about the election results or already knew the results.




Now click to watch the videos below that show the serious flaws of the electronic counters and errors and fraud made in the South Korean elections.



  Electronic Counters: Errors and Fraud in S. Korean Elections



Electronic Counters: Errors and Fraud Simulation



3. Recount, no, Actual Count Must be Done Immediately

A. Tentative count (electronic counting) was done.
B. Formal count (manual counting) has not started yet.
C. The election results are not officially confirmed.

Under the South Korean Public Official Election Act, the electronic counters cannot be used in elections, but only in by-elections by mutual consent (with other parties).  So if the Central Election Management Committee refuses to do the manual counting, then the election itself should be nullified as they are violating the South Korean Public Official Election Act.

Do you remember the Florida election recount of 2000 US presidential election?  And the South Korean presidential election recount of 2002? After the recount, President Roh Moo-hyun’s election was legally/officially assured. Recount is our right guaranteed by the constitution. And we’re not even asking for recount; we’re asking for the formal manual counting that is regulated by the constitution. Why are the Lee Myung-bak administration, the Central Election Management Committee, and the political parties violating the law? This is a serious constitutional crime that impinges voting rights and election law.

More accurately speaking, the electronic counters are merely sorting machines that are used to sort votes to accelerate the counting processes.  That’s why the manual counting must follow to verify the serial numbers, invalid votes, misplaced votes, and so on. And this is regulated by the South Korean Public Official Election Act. In short, the actual counting must go on. Why did they leave the counting held in suspension?

All the votes were “sorted” now. And based on the tentative results, South Korean media projected Park Geun-hye to win the election.  Now, it’s time for the real counting.

And now, South Koreans are signing petition for the manual count on the 2012 Presidential Election and also will file a lawsuit to seek the nullification of the election.

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링크 

http://2012skpreselection.blogspot.ca/2012/12/the-actual-vote-counting-hasnt-started.html

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